Wednesday, May 30, 2007

economy growth edition

the maths and statistics are out and it shows a clear trend that the economy is growing at a rate never seen before in this country. not even before independence. the guy who put that in the papers was clever to start all the way from 1956, a 50 year analysis. the analysis was very interesting. but was the report surprising? hardly. Even though politicians are bad mouthing the report and saying its a campaign gimmick , you have to agree that the growth has been felt in many areas. coz otherwise i would need to be told where those 5000 cars per month are coming from and going to. and if you go to the super market, you line up for that long, and the mobile phone profits (12. something billion!) those guys must have been laundering money if it was not coming from Kenyans. even about tourism, we have read over and over about shortage of beds and of people turning their houses into lodges. further, beer consumption has gone up even after the brewer started the responsible drinking campaign. the list doesn't end there ...

...and or all that we need to raise our hats and bow!


  1. Salut Monsieur Odegle! During Monday prime time news, there was a coincidence on the opinion polls by KTN and NTV. They both asked if Kenyans had positively felt the 6.1% economic growth. The results were:
    No:78% Yes: 22%

    No: 67% Yes: 33%

    Before the referendum in 2005, Prof. Nyon'go was asked if it is indeed true that there was economic groth in Kenya, he sais that it all depended on the sector and that if there was growth in the agricultural sector then only prostitutes could not have felt it!!
    HAve a nice day.

  2. Jakarumba-lol!
    Seriuosly though, someone must be enjoying this economic growth. Problem is, its not the wanjikus or atienos of our beloved country...

  3. For the benefits of economic growth to trickle down to the Wanjuku, we have to shift our focus from elitist sectors like tourism, which have a very minimal effect in job creation.

  4. @jakarumba, i really don't know how Kenyans are supposed to 'feel' the economic growth.
    @MainaT, am one of those guys. but pray tell me who are these wanjikus and atienos and how did they not 'feel' the growth

    @swaka, if u say that tourism is elitist, then how about retail sector, agriculture and transport? are those too elitist.

    bottom line i believe the figures only that for those who sat back and waited for 'economy' to fall on them like rain, there sure will be disappointments

  5. Well well,
    Agin we go to those economic theory. remember Anyang Nyong'o and compnay changed the way Kenya measures its economic growth. I am tempted to believe that was to boost th growth. Now unfortunately iam away from Kenya and have not been back for two years. While i have been away, My costs have doubled in my new country but My income has quadrupled.In real terms, that means that my life is twice as goodi.e i can afford twice as many things as i could in Kenya. What me asks. What is a growth of 6.1% and from what base? That growth is miniscule and while appluding it in the face or previous mediocre performance. We must reflect if it has meant that our lives are now 6.1% cheaper. Now is this real aboslute growth. If the economy grew 6% and inflation was 6% it it means that we have really not made much progress.But if infaltion was 10% it actually means that we may are worse off.
    Well I am not an economist and i would like to understand this celebration of 6% increase.

  6. aah,
    i think odgele put it correctly kwani where did all those new cars come from and all the new buildings come from.

    I think there is economic growth, economic growth benefits some and some people suffer - some sectors benefited during the years of poor growth and weak currency ehg horticulture and tea.

  7. Kenya is experiencing a population youth "bulge" as those who were born in the Moi the era come of age and more of the population begin to "join" the workforce.
    During the 1990s most of the population was below 18 years.

    It is only natural statistcally for the GDP to grow for the next 10-15 years.

    Alas the fastest growth period was actually the 7 years after independence just b4 Kibaki took over and messed thing up with government overspending

  8. Anyone know where we can read a detailed report on this economic growth?

  9. Odegle, I'm an avid reader of this blog but never post responses. You do a good job please keep it up.

    My 2 cents,
    I think it's about time the naysayers published alternative statistics that can disaprove this results.

    It's not just about understanding economics it's also about looking at the statistics properly to see where and how the cash is trickling down.
    Take for example a guy with a car wash on the roadside. Does he notice a boom in business due to increase in cars ?
    Does the herdsman see an increased demand for meat (what are people buying in supermarkets and what are tourists eating in hotels ?)
    If you want to you will always find a case where one person at the bottom is better off and another is worse off.
    The basket of inflation doesn't measure all commodities and neither does the GDP actually represent every single exchange that has taken place.

  10. Od-wasn't querying the figures, but clearly the impact has not been felt by the majority of Kenyans. Its a bit a like a sprint race, we can start-off at the sound of the whistle, but some of us will be fat, slow not to mention disabled and we won't all get to the finishing line at the same time.

  11. @anon, i have actually moved on and am not debating anymore on the statistics. in fact in my post, i stated that one did not need figures really.
    @mkenya, am new to that theory of population and automatic growth in economy.
    @Ken, asante for the kind words
    @maint, i think you have said it perfectly. when the gun goes off, some must be ahead while others are left arguing whether or not the gun was legaly sounded or whether it really did sound. its like the 3 kinds of people ; some make things happen , others marvel and analyze while a third group wonders what just happened. well now i know there is a fourth group that vehemently denies anything ever happened!

  12. I figure that in a capitalist society, only the people who strive hard to make things work for them are the ones that feel the benefit. So for Wanjikus and Atienos, if they do things the same way as always, pole but these figures will never make sense.

  13. Just a curiosity,
    South Africa sold 550 000 new vehicles last year and has been selling upto 500 000 new vehicles every year since 2004. Unfortunately i was missed out..yet i believe iam a hard working immigrant. Maybe just being stingy but i cannot imagine buying a tazz for an equivalent of 1 Million Shillings.! But people are doing it!

  14. The government must sort out the issue of insecurity in the country before anyone starts preaching about economy growth. When a head which has been chopped off a body is skinned...this is HORROR beyond God knows what. Economy growth is meaningless if no one is safe in their homes.


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