just like men (and women) can tell the signs of the times from the falling of leaves from trees, mumias sale seems close by as adverts flood the media like the rain at the coast! strategic targeted advertising to whet our appetite. however am yet to see anyone going the route kengen went. people only talk about the overwhelming interest in kengen yet they forget to give credit to the advertising company. there were billboards all over and every little media space told you about it. Kiss fm even ran a show where the MD was present and people won share holding in the energy firm. if mumias goes this route probably hell will break lose and those queues will visit our streets again. as for eveready, am told only a few brokers like nyaga are having those long qs. however most brokers are not enthusiatic and have sort of discouraged their clients all together. this is not new since bloggers have been drumming this over and over that the sale is not an ipo but a dump. again it should be noted that the material gain that happens after the ipo is due to post ipo interest and not necesarily oversupscription
and as that goes on, the revelations on safaricom have raised more questions than answers. the worse part is where the govt tries to convince pple that they did not know. What! how can you not know your partner when you are the one with the bigger shareholding. give me another joke. and by the way, these revelations have come since safaricom has raised a lot of interest. how much dont we know of other firms which dont raise as much interest. and is it true that the govt owns 60%?
but the other counters that were predicted to go down at this time instead are going up. the likes of sameer and co. december is however a very tricky month with both optimism and festivity. traders and investors behave in a disjointed manner with no traceable patterns.
Odegle Tip of the day -- focus and time helps ants build those masterpieces!
Eveready - Gut feeling; Oversubscription coz only 63 Million shares @ 9.50 ("low" price) = 600 Million. Speculators.
ReplyDeleteMumias - Stealth marketing helps!
Gut feeling:
54/- (21 Nov 2006) less 20% discount = 45/-.
MSC will galvanise Kenyans - just like KenGen - into applying BUT only raise KES 4.1 Billion while Kenyans have larger capacity esp if banks & saccos offer loans!
Eveready didn't excite me... some folks think I have a axe to grind with merali...
ReplyDeleteApart from his "insider" deal with the moi government... I do not care... but unlike the Aga Kahn firms... merali firms don't make large profits for the minority shareholders!
I expect shareholders in DTBK to make much more from their Rights (at 50/-) than those who buy Eveready at 9.50 over a 5-year term.
i cant agree with you more. the beef i personaly have with merali is that he behaves more like a speculator than an investor. those quick moves he pulls smacks of someone who does not have a passion for a firm nor a long term strategy. the way he entered and exit uchumi was a case in point, others were celtel and even EAC. i dont think its alright for an investor his size.
ReplyDeleteagain a certain fund manager just told me never to touch merali. now that was a fund manager who does her research well and is managing one of the most profitable funds in the country.
but why 20% ? why not 10% for mumias
20% discount on the AVERAGE PRICE. That is a trend I have noticed... KenGen was sold at a 25% discount to the NAV.
ReplyDeleteAll in all... I think it will be around 45/-... It also creates excitement & will ensure a spectacular over-subscription!
Finally, it makes the government look good i.e. an immediate 10-20% increase in value! Elections are near!
CT, I am gald I am not the only who think that the timing of all these IPOs is very political i.e. investors/speculators will be thinking vote Kibaki back for more of the IPO good times...
ReplyDelete