good for the market

the easter is over and the talk is on and all over about what is good or not good for the stock market. just like last year it was all talk about what will head north or south or whatever it is on the compass. all informed and not so informed investors are making a prediction. how will the market react to ODMs government? will it panic the way mbaru threatens? and by the way does market do well when there is stability? if so then how does one explain Zimbabwe's case or even UG and so on. how come African markets outperform other markets in the world? Africa is the bedrock of political uncertainty and instability. the truth is probably that many other factors must be taken into consideration. further, you need to find out whether the market you are dealing with is sophisticated and sensitive enough to react to every minor change. like rainfall, ministers sacking or lack of etc. however if steadmans results are anything to go by then i would think that ODM would give better environment to the market since a kibaki win means a president with no legislative support. we will have a president with few MPs meaning that the opposition will simply stifle any debate or idea that the president could have. that would not be good for business.

However talking of transitions, i think the current administration would be making a mistake by delaying the sale of safaricom. the way we are behaving is like we are soo surprised at the value of safaricom that we cant really make our mind how much its worth and how much we want to sell it. we may get into the tragedy of the beautiful girl, who turns down all suitors forgetting that time never forgives anyone not even the beautiful ones. new beauties are born every day and also even the dumbest of suitors lose interest. it has already happened with telkom Kenya and it can happen with safaricom. in todays news i read in horror that advisors are thinking of offshore listing for safaricom fearing it will destabilize the market. oh Please!

on a different note, equity bank has shown more kenyanness than putting up flags on billboards by sponsoring local drama festivals. equity has even gone further by returning the entertaining winners concert to Nairobi National Theater. Theater lovers can watch the winners this Sunday at KNT. going by past experience, advance booking is advised and available at the box office of KNT and at tumu tumu where the festivals are being held.
I dont know whether other banks are watching but equities move ensures 'catching them when they are young' approach. since all those young people who attended the festival will only know equity as the friendly, everyones bank. meanwhile BBK is opening more branches all over. i thought you need to market then open or does it happen the other way round. i don't think BBK has done anything to erase the painful memories of the late 90s when together with stanchart they literally chased away 'small' people from their halls?