Monday, January 15, 2007

same old same old ...

back to nairobi and blogshere and nse. same old mind games, money making speculation and party. well its too much to expect a change after only one month really. only that i have discovered that the easiest way to cause a stampede on a counter and then reap the fruits of your 'labour' is to start a rumour that trancentury is buying out this and that firm. so in some blogs and discusion groups, rumours are ripe that the TC group which is also known by some politicians to be drug peddlers and by others to be kitchen cabinet are buying virtualy every firm that has failed to get juicy capital gains in the past one year. i dont know how much these rumours are helping but i hope that the fund managers dont fall easily to such things.

what i know is that speculation can cause a short rise in prices, but a sustained rise can only be obtained if and only if major players show interest. the volumes must be good. so these rumour mongers need to use other fora.

on another note, i think that politician called raila should be traded in the nse using an IPO. i dont think there is anyone is this country who invokes as much passion be it passionate fear or passionate love as this old man. so any post on him yields thousands of responses. i went to his blog after reading the friday nation and discovered that i could not even finish half of the comments on a short 10 paragraph article. i think marketers should discover that Raila sells just like football does! the nation on friday had a pullout on blogs and i was humbled to read this blog's name on the papers

odegle tip of the day ... stack the shillings (coins) and the notes will line themselves in neat piles


  1. When do you think Kenyans will get tired of this charade?

    The PE ratios for most firms are staggering esp with limited real growth in the economy (less than 8%) compared to China or India.

    There is room for profit growth but the prices are out of hand!

  2. Coldi if you ask me, i think there is active manipulation of prices. i even think that it might be true what raila says. take a case like this one; i tried in vain to get KPLC shares last year when they were in fact falling. i cant understand how come shares are difficult to get when their prices are falling yet when there is steady rise they are easy to get. this goes against the grain as far as my experience is concerned.

    and the govt has gone bonkers and started over estimating prices of their firms. if you read the nation smart company today you will find it ridiculous what the govt is asking of safaricom. at this rate what do you think is the price they will quote for the firm even in an IPO?

  3. Odegle - I think its overexuberance in an relatively illiquid market.

    Advanced stockmarkets also allow for options trading ths reducing the need to buy shares for speculators.

    Price manipulation is possible but unless you get sucked into it... i.e. don't buy just because prices are rising!

    KPLC - I have no idea but what was your price limit or was it at "market"... also some brokers are lousy!

  4. it was at market. i normally buy at market and no my broker is quite good. normaly their transaction period is 3 days to 1 week. they have never let me down so i believe them when they say they cant find in fact they only found 300 shares. i know that you dont need to buy when prices are going up and i never do that and thats why i am normaly confident buying at the market.

  5. Pole sana... in spite of the politics, there is a good chance the following will happen in KPLC...

    Profits rise, then KPLC converts Pref shares to Common shares then there is a split...

    Perhaps, perhaps... KPLC is still worth buying at 300/-???


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