Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Foreign investors

Dont you just love the way kenyans have taken to the securities market and are looking for any small or big opportunity? last monday i was at standard stocks and discovered they have oppened a dedicated hall to handle IPO traffic. i found many people applying for MSC but a number were also applying for the stanbic IPO in Uganda. stanbic UG is said to be the largest bank in UG and offers services to all government bodies and NGOs. its also the only bank in rural UG. sounds like KCB of kenya but without compe from BBK and stanchart. its not clear how robust the investor public is in UG. but at 2.85 /= kenyan money and by Kenyan standards, this IPO is very 'cheap'. MSC is going for 49.50 and some pple are grumbling that its too high. some rumor mongers have it that the price will drop to 30 in januray. i never know hoe kenyans can tell such things but they do.

if UG does not watch, then stanbic will be over subed by kenyans alone. they will probably have to watch out and limit the thirsty kenyans. this will happen after project fame has seen only kenyans take home the grand merc as well as positions 1 to 4. however on the project fame i dont know how that is good for business. i also dont know how that helps our relationship with TZ. those guys are already paranoid.

if kenyans override that stanbic thing then UG may hav to got the TZ route and follow the adage, that if the brain fails try the fist! however the 'behavior' is very refreshing

odegle tip of the day -- before investing, make sure you set up clear goals , objectives and policies. these can guide you in what you are doing. investing should not be a by the way and the way you treat 10 bob should be the same way you treat 10 million bob.

9 comments:

  1. Odegle - In case of an oversubscription, the Ugandans will get preferred allocations.

    Kenya needs to do the same e.g. the upcoming Safaricom, Telkom or KenRe.

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  3. East African companies stand to benefit from Kenyans’ love affair with stocks. Ugandan and Kenyan exchanges have already discovered this, which is why they are rooting for an East African Stock Exchange. It’s a relief that a company situated, say, along the Nile in Uganda can depend on capital provided by an investor in as far as Lamu in Kenya. Sadly, an old Ujamaa Legacy means that our southern neighbors are being left out.

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  4. i just hope that the bug will hit our neigbours as well. the stock market offers a very cheap source of funds for development. the east africas region can soon be a first world! given the economic aactivity of the past few years, am led to conclude the kenyans and probably east africans have what it takes to make it big in a very short time. in fact the 2030 can be achieved sooner than suggested all we need is focused leadership

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  5. Stanbic UG is offerring 1 billion shares representing 20%.Meaning that issued shares are approx 5 Billion shares.
    In contrast KENGEN has only 2,198,361,456 shares issued.

    Makes me wonder if this isnt a case of an extreme share split.
    This is good in a Bull market BUT ina bear market oversupply can maul your share prices e.g. KQ in the nineties

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  6. Pesa - This was crafted for the Ugandan market thus the "low" price.

    In any event the 1 Billion shares are at KShs 3/- so even if they increase to KShs 6/-... that is a much smaller float than many Kenyan banks!

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  7. While 2.85 Sh for a stock whose P.E is very low looks attractive, my worry however is the ease at which one will trade with shares allocated since USE is still on certificates: imagine having to visit Stanbics registrar in Kampala to confirm your Signature

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  8. odegle - Where are you?

    No new posts???

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  9. had gone on a loong holiday. i decided even to break on blogging as well! now am back

    cheers

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